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Water Tera MageTier 2
at KouritenSG Store Championship
decks
2
(5.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
1-6-1
overall winrate
18.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.1%
avg ELO -5.7 per match
expected value
42.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1121
· median 1121
· range 1115–1127
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
953
Q1 1229
Q3 1397
1633
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Luxem Assassin | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.0% | -3.1 |
| Fire Suited | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.6 |
| Wind Merlin | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.7 |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +6.0 |
| Wind Tera Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
